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Major Market Housing Starts Forecast - January 2015

Our quarterly outlook for new housing starts in 10 of Canada’s major markets

Construction workers in shadow

In 2014, Calgary saw construction begin on more homes than any other year on record, just squeaking by the previous record set in 2006. Softening economic conditions should lead to fewer starts in 2015.

Vancouver starts are forecast to decline somewhat, but remain above the recent ten-year average in both 2015 and 2016.

Housing demand remains strong in Toronto, as evidenced by persistently low inventories and strong resale price increases. Furthermore, 2014 saw a sharp increase in new home sales for both single-family and condominium apartments, according to Altus Group’s RealNet data, which will translate into higher starts in 2015.

Montreal is forecast to see fewer housing starts in 2015. Higher single-family starts should partially offset a decline in apartments, as some demand is expected to be filled from unsold inventories in the completed stock.

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